I feel like there’s a lot of here-say as to the state of the wedding industry today so I thought I’d engage our friend ChatGPT, in particular the new “Deep Research” model on ChatGPT 4.5, to see if there was any data out there to back up the anecdotes we’re all hearing and telling.

This is no regular ChatGPT session, it took about 25 minutes of research by the software, which doesn’t necessarily make it right, but it at least feels like it spent 25 minutes searching the web and forming an opinion on the topic, plus it’s a good read nonetheless.

Enjoy this large language model research paper on the state of the wedding market today.

1. Pre‑COVID vs 2025: Market Size and Sales Funnel Metrics

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented disruption to wedding markets worldwide. In Australia, the number of registered marriages plummeted from 113,000 in 2019 to just 79,000 in 2020, then rebounded sharply to a record 127,161 weddings in 2022. This “boom” was echoed globally – the US saw an estimated 2.6 million weddings in 2022, the busiest year since 1984 as postponed celebrations crowded into one season. By 2023, however, volumes normalized: Australia logged 118,439 marriages in 2023, down from the 2022 peak and essentially back to pre-pandemic levels. Industry forecasts had anticipated ₁₃₉,000 Australian weddings in 2023, but the actual number undershot that, reflecting a softer market than expected. Wedding enquiry volumes and bookings similarly peaked during the 2021–2022 catch-up surge and have since eased. With most COVID-postponed events now past, vendors report 2023–24 bookings down by 40–50% compared to “normal” pre-pandemic levels (an anecdotal trend some call the “wedding gap”). In short, after a “boom and bust” cycle the wedding market in 2025 has settled to a new baseline: roughly on par with (or slightly below) 2019 activity in many regions, but with notable shifts in client behavior across the sales funnel.

Average spending on weddings has also fluctuated. Before COVID, Australian weddings cost around A$36,000 on average. By 2023 this average was about A$34,715 per wedding, a small nominal decrease (and a larger drop in real terms given inflation). Industry surveys confirm couples’ budgets have not skyrocketed post-pandemic – in fact many are prioritizing cost savings. One report even suggests the typical Aussie wedding spend fell from A$53,168 in 2019 to A$34,715 in 2023, though more conservative official estimates show only a slight dip (from ~$35K to $34K). Globally, the pattern is similar: in the US, the average wedding in 2022/23 cost roughly $30–35K (USD), comparable to or a bit above 2019 levels. The frequency of bookings and conversion rates have shifted as well. During the 2022 boom, vendors were inundated – many were fully booked and even weekday weddings became common to accommodate demand. Now, in 2025, with the backlog cleared, couples are reverting to traditional Saturday events and vendor calendars have more gaps. Sales funnel metrics like lead volume and conversion are under pressure: competition for new bookings is high, and vendors cite “leads and conversion” as a top challenge. On the customer feedback side, client expectations have evolved (as detailed later), but overall satisfaction remains tied to value – couples still seek great service and are vocal with reviews, pushing professionals to maintain high quality to secure referrals. In summary, by 2025 the core funnel metrics (inquiries, bookings, spend per wedding) are back in a normal range after wild swings, but “normal” itself has been redefined by the pandemic experience and emerging trends.

2. Factors Driving Change in the Wedding Market

A combination of generational, cultural, economic, and social factors has contributed to the shifts observed from pre-2020 to 2025:

Generational Shifts (Millennials vs. Gen Z Brides & Grooms)

Today’s marrying couples straddle older Millennials and younger Gen Z, bringing new attitudes. Gen Z is coming of age for marriage (mid-20s in 2025) and tends to value authenticity, frugality, and tech-savvy planning. Surveys indicate Gen Z couples are far more budget-conscious: 25% of Gen Z respondents say a $10K–$20K wedding budget is “reasonable,” whereas a sizable share of Millennials felt $50K+ was warranted. Planners observe that many Gen Z pairs “opt for low-key weddings,” focusing on what matters to them and cutting the rest. They care about experiences over extravagance – for example, ensuring the day feels personal and is captured on social media, but they’re fine skipping formal invitations, large guest counts, or other trappings. Millennials (now in their 30s and early 40s) have generally shouldered higher costs and larger events, but even they have been influenced by recent changes (many Millennials postponed weddings during COVID and are marrying later). The result is a blending of trends: an average couple in 2025 is around **31 years old (up from late-20s pre-COVID) ******, often tech-enabled and value-conscious. Crucially, marriage itself is less obligatory for younger generations – many are content to delay or forgo it, contributing to a long-term decline in marriage rates. At the same time, some data suggests renewed enthusiasm: 86% of Gen Z surveyed say they envision marriage in their future, signaling that marriage is still valued even if done differently. In short, generational turnover is pushing the industry toward smaller, more personalized, less traditional weddings that reflect Gen Z’s pragmatic outlook, versus the bigger-budget, formulaic weddings that earlier generations often felt obliged to host.

Cultural Trends (Marriage Preferences & Non-Traditional Celebrations)

Even before COVID, weddings were evolving culturally – and the pandemic accelerated many non-traditional trends. One major shift is the rise of micro-weddings and elopements. Intimate ceremonies that might have been rare pre-2020 are now mainstream: roughly 16% of couples had weddings with 50 or fewer guests in 2023 (per one US survey), and industry polls show 50–60% of today’s couples actively consider a small ceremony. During lockdowns, couples discovered the appeal of saying “I do” with just close family (or even via Zoom); now, many intentionally choose that route to save money or avoid fuss. Alongside smaller guest lists, there’s a loosening of wedding “rules.” Traditions like the big white gown, formal sit-down dinner, or even Saturday church venue are no longer givens. “There aren’t any rules anymore,” one planner quipped, as Gen Z and Millennials feel free to mix and match elements that suit them. For example, some swap fresh florals for artificial arrangements to save cost and be eco-friendly. Others ditch assigned seating, forego bridal parties, or choose casual settings (backyard, beach, national park) that were once considered unconventional. Sustainability is another cultural value reshaping weddings: about 1 in 4 couples now plan eco-friendly weddings (using recycled décor, local/seasonal food, etc.), reflecting broader environmental consciousness. Additionally, the definition of marriage celebrations has broadened – from multi-day wedding weekends (especially popular with Millennials who include welcome parties, next-day brunches, etc.) to “sequel weddings” (a legal ceremony followed by a celebration later) and inclusive ceremonies for LGBTQ+ and non-binary participants (Australia saw thousands of same-sex marriages after legalization in 2018, integrating that demand). Overall, wedding culture in 2025 is more diverse and personalized: couples feel empowered to do things their way, whether that means a barefoot elopement at sunset or a full-weekend festival. This flexibility was turbocharged by COVID (which proved that small and simple can be just as meaningful), and it persists as a core trend.

Economic Changes (Inflation, Cost of Living, & Spending Priorities)

Economic conditions from 2020–2025 have put weddings under financial pressure. High inflation and cost-of-living increases in recent years directly impact both couples and vendors. Many couples emerging from the pandemic are juggling new financial priorities – housing costs, lost income from recession periods, or simply a desire to build savings over splurging on one day. A recent Australian survey found 30% of couples are spending less on their weddings compared to previous years. In practice, this often means trimming guest lists (cutting down the cost per head) or choosing budget-friendly options. In 2023–24, 65% of Australian couples said cost-of-living pressures affected their wedding budget. Similarly in the US, 85% of engaged couples report inflation has or will affect their plans. While a majority still stick to their “dream” event, about 41% cope by reducing guests and 30% adjust the budget (some even increase their budget to meet rising vendor prices). Indeed, the average Aussie venue cost jumped 6% year-on-year as of 2023, and other categories (catering, photographers, etc.) have seen price hikes. This puts couples in a bind – they expect weddings to be pricey, but there’s a growing sentiment that weddings shouldn’t break the bank. In one poll, 73% of Gen Z and Millennials agreed weddings are too expensive nowadays. As a result, many are consciously reallocating funds: some prioritize saving for a home over an extravagant wedding, while others embrace DIY and cost-cutting measures (weekday weddings, electronic invites, second-hand dresses, etc.). On the flip side, those who do go for big weddings often have to spend more than couples did pre-pandemic, simply due to inflation. It’s reported that couples typically spend 26% over their original budget, and taking on debt for weddings (personal loans, credit cards) has become relatively common in this era of high costs. In summary, economic realities in 2025 have produced a paradox: **the average wedding budget is slightly lower or flat compared to 2019 ******, but the expectations from both clients and suppliers are being squeezed by higher costs. This economic squeeze is a key driver behind the popularity of smaller weddings and the intense focus on value-for-money.

Social Behaviors & COVID’s Lasting Effects

The social landscape after two years of lockdowns and distancing has also left its mark on marriages. One immediate effect was the accumulation of pent-up demand – couples who got engaged in 2020 or 2021 often waited 1–2+ years to marry, leading to the 2022 surge. But beyond that, COVID altered how people socialize, date, and celebrate. Extended lockdowns and remote work changed relationship dynamics: singles had fewer opportunities to meet in person, and many new relationships were delayed or formed online under unusual circumstances. This has fed into what some call a “relationship gap” (explored in detail in section 3) – essentially a shortfall in the number of new couples who would now be reaching the altar. Meanwhile, those who were already in long-term relationships during the pandemic often reevaluated their priorities. Some decided life is short and jumped into marriage or engagement (“lockdown proposals” were a noted trend as people realized their partner was truly The One during quarantine). Others experienced hardship or loss that made the big traditional wedding feel less important. As one Australian bride-to-be observed, seeing the COVID disruptions “made it clear what’s important on our wedding day – making sure the right people are there, not the glitz and glamour.”. This captures a broader post-COVID social ethos: family and meaningful experiences > superficial extravagance. Additionally, remote work and lifestyle changes have allowed more flexibility in planning (e.g. guests now more willing to travel mid-week or work remotely around a wedding trip), but have also blurred work-life boundaries, making some couples very time-poor despite being at home. Another lasting behavior change is caution about unforeseen disruptions – while few couples in 2025 fear COVID will cancel their wedding, many now insure their events or have backup plans (something rare pre-2020). Vendors too remain wary of sudden changes in regulations or travel rules, after being burned by the chaos of postponements (40% of weddings were cancelled or rescheduled over 2020–21). In sum, the social scars and lessons of the pandemic – from how we meet partners to how we value intimate moments – have created a cohort of couples who approach weddings differently than those before them. They are, on the whole, more selective in why/when they marry, more mindful of their guest list composition, and more adaptable to change.

3. The “Relationship Gap” Theory: Fewer Couples After COVID

One striking hypothesis for the downturn in weddings circa 2023–2025 is the “relationship gap” – the idea that the pandemic caused a shortfall in new relationships, which is now translating to fewer engagements and weddings. The concept is supported by data from related industries, notably the diamond trade. Signet Jewelers (owner of Zales, Kay, etc.) observed that as a result of 2020’s dating freeze, engagement ring sales dropped sharply about 3 years later. On average, couples date for ₃.25 years before getting engaged. So the missing cohort of couples who didn’t meet or start dating in 2020–21 meant a corresponding dip in proposals around 2023. In the US, typical annual engagements fell from ~2.8 million pre-pandemic to an estimated 2.1–2.2 million in 2023 – a decline Signet directly attributes to “the dating dry spell during the depths of the pandemic”. This engagement gap has a direct pipeline effect on the wedding industry: fewer engagements today mean fewer weddings a year or two down the line.

There is emerging evidence that this gap is also affecting Australia and other markets. Official Australian marriage stats in 2023 showed a drop of about 7% from 2022 (127k down to 118k), which aligns with the tail end of that backlog working through and possibly a shortfall of new couples coming through. Dating app trends during COVID reinforce the theory – while usage of apps like Tinder, Bumble, Hinge remained high (people were swiping in isolation), many users reported it was harder to form real relationships under lockdown conditions. The result: a dip in the number of established couples in the 2020–21 period. Supporting data can even be found upstream in the diamond and jewelry sector beyond Signet. De Beers and other diamond analysts noted a pandemic-related slump: in 2022–23, engagement diamond sales stalled enough that Signet revised revenue forecasts, citing “fewer engagements… as a result of 2020’s forced isolation”. This pattern is expected to be temporary. Experts predict a rebound in engagements by 2024–2025 as the dating landscape has normalized. Signet’s CEO noted that by early 2024, dating activity was actually 8% above pre-COVID levels and that the “engagement gap” was bottoming out in 2023. Indeed, they forecast US engagements to climb back to ₂.4–2.5 million in 2024 and fully recover in a few years. If this holds true, the wedding industry should likewise see an upswing a little later (since engagements precede weddings).

Beyond rings and dating apps, marriage rate statistics hint at a similar story. After the aberration of 2020’s record-low marriage rate (3.8 per 1,000 adults in Australia) and the 2022 catch-up high (6.1 per 1,000), 2023’s marriage rate of 5.5 per 1,000 appears to resume the prior downward trajectory. Part of that is the continuation of long-term social change, but part may be this deficit of couples of marrying age. Even the birth rate slump seen in many countries around 2020 could tie in – fewer new relationships and marriages eventually mean fewer babies, and vice versa, reflecting a COVID-induced demographic dent. While it’s difficult to quantify exactly how many “missing weddings” are due to the relationship gap versus economic or cultural reasons, wedding professionals widely felt a sudden slow patch in late 2023 and 2024 that didn’t match the usual patterns. This theory has given the industry a hopeful framing: the lull is cyclical and not purely a sign of permanent decline. If true, the latter half of the 2020s could see a modest rebound as the couples who would have met in 2020 finally find each other a bit later and make their way down the aisle.

4. Impact on Wedding Professionals: Operating in 2025’s New Normal

For celebrants, planners, and other wedding vendors, these shifting dynamics mean that business as usual no longer applies. The landscape of 2025 demands adaptation in multiple facets of operations – from marketing and client communication to pricing and services:

• Market Saturation and Competition: After the initial COVID shock, many new vendors entered the market during the 2022 boom, or existing ones overextended to recoup losses. Now with demand leveling off, there’s an oversupply of vendors relative to weddings. In Australia, celebrancy saw a surge of entrants (leading the pack in feeling competitive pressure). Suppliers across the board rank “competitors and vendor saturation” as their #1 challenge in 2023–24. For professionals, this means you must differentiate yourself. Those who thrive are clearly articulating their unique value proposition – whether it’s a signature style, premium service, or niche specialty – to avoid competing purely on price. It also means many are seeing fewer bookings; a number of seasoned suppliers have even quit the industry in 2023 due to the intensity of competition and diminishing returns.
• Lead Generation and Client Acquisition: With a smaller pool of engaged couples (and many opting for DIY or intimate weddings), lead volumes are down, and conversion is paramount. Vendors can no longer sit back and wait for referrals alone; they are investing more in marketing (wedding businesses spend ₂₄% of revenue on marketing/ads on average) and leveraging platforms like online directories and social media. However, couples' behavior has changed too – modern Millennial/Gen Z clients overwhelmingly prefer digital communication. About 82% of couples initiate contact via email and less than 8% want phone calls. They also tend to book the vendor who responds fastest with the most helpful info (nearly 2 in 10 book whoever replies first, and 62% book based on the quality of info in a timely reply ). This has forced wedding pros to up their responsiveness and tech game: using CRM apps for instant inquiry notifications, offering Zoom consults, and maintaining active Instagram/TikTok channels to engage prospects. Essentially, sales funnels have moved online, and vendors must meet couples where they are – which is often scrolling on a smartphone looking for authentic samples of your work and reviews.
• Client Expectations and Service Offerings: The typical 2025 couple expects a highly personalized, flexible service. They are less tolerant of rigid, one-size packages. Celebrants, for example, report that today’s clients often request bespoke ceremony elements or unique locations – requiring officiants to be creative and adaptable (“open to quirky or different setups,” as feedback notes). Planners and venues find many couples want an all-in-one, stress-free solution after the stress of recent years; as one venue operator noted, “people are showing up wanting everything done for them… it’s more like, let’s book it in and have what we wanted”. This has led to growth in full-service packages and collaboration among vendors (e.g. planners bundling photography, florals, etc. into a single package for micro-weddings). Weekday weddings, while declining from the peak, are still more common than pre-COVID, so professionals have to be ready to work unconventional schedules or offer dynamic pricing (discounts for off-peak dates, etc.). Moreover, couples increasingly value sustainability and inclusivity – they may ask vendors about eco-friendly practices or expect experience with diverse cultural traditions and LGBTQ+ ceremonies. In response, many celebrants and caterers have broadened their skill sets (learning new rites, offering vegan menus, etc.) to meet these expectations. And after the pandemic’s tech leap, services like live-streaming the ceremony for distant guests or creating digital invitations and websites have become a standard part of a planner’s remit.
• Pricing Pressures and Profitability: Wedding businesses are squeezed between rising costs and clients' budget constraints. Inflation in supplies and labor (from flowers to food to fuel) means vendors have had to raise their prices – Easy Weddings data showed costs rising across many categories (e.g. +6% for venues, +5% for flowers year-on-year). However, today’s cost-conscious couples often push back on prices, having a plethora of alternatives in a saturated market. This has made pricing strategy delicate. Many pros have adopted tiered packages to cater to different budgets – for instance, a photographer might offer a basic 4-hour elopement package versus a deluxe full-day package. Some venues have started charging a premium for peak Saturdays in popular months to maximize revenue in high demand times (a strategy suggested to offset inflation). At the same time, vendors are finding ways to trim their own expenses or streamline operations to remain profitable at lower volumes – from downsizing staff (addressing the “understaffing” issue that hit the industry post-COVID), to automating parts of their workflow (online planning tools, client portals, etc.). It’s a balancing act: professionals must educate clients on the value behind their pricing (often referencing how much work goes into each wedding – e.g. a photographer spends ₃₂ hours per wedding including editing, on average ) while also finding efficiencies to keep margins viable.
• Emotional and Logistical Strains: After the rollercoaster of 2020–2022, many wedding professionals are burnt out. The industry’s work is inherently high-stakes and high-stress (each event is a “once in a lifetime” day), and COVID multiplied those stressors. By 2023, some vendors cited mental health and exhaustion as reasons to exit the field. Those who remain in 2025 have had to institute better time management and self-care practices. The days of triple-booking weekends are less common now; vendors are pacing their bookings to ensure quality. There’s also a push towards community support – many have joined professional networks or mentorship groups (online forums, industry associations) to share advice on coping and business tips in this new era. In terms of logistics, the pandemic taught everyone to be nimble. Celebrants and planners now routinely have contingency plans (for weather, illness, travel disruptions) and often communicate these upfront to couples. Flexibility is a selling point: a planner who can easily scale an event up or down, or pivot to Plan B if needed, is highly valued after the unpredictability couples witnessed in recent years.

In sum, wedding professionals in 2025 must be agile businesspeople and empathetic service providers. The “new normal” involves more marketing hustle, more customization, and tighter margins – requiring a proactive approach to thrive. Those who adapt (embracing tech, adjusting offerings, collaborating, and standing out in their branding) are still finding success and even new opportunities, whereas those clinging to the 2019 playbook are struggling to meet the moment.

5. Strategic Recommendations for a Sustainable & Profitable Wedding Business

Given the above dynamics, what should the wedding industry – from solo celebrants to large venues – be doing differently to remain sustainable and profitable in 2025 and beyond? Below are strategic recommendations, rooted in current trends and data:

• Embrace Smaller Weddings and New Services: Rather than viewing micro-weddings or elopements as “lesser” events, treat them as a growth segment. Develop specialized packages for intimate ceremonies (e.g. weekday sunrise elopement package, courthouse wedding + mini-reception bundle) to capture couples who might otherwise skip using a professional. Likewise, consider offering related services like live-stream coordination, decor rental for small setups, or combined photography+celebrant deals. This diversification can open new revenue streams and fill open dates.
• Focus on Unique Value & Storytelling: In an oversaturated market, identify and amplify your unique selling proposition. Whether it’s a signature style (rustic boho ceremonies?), an unmatched expertise (fluent in multiple cultural traditions or bilingual ceremonies), or exceptional customer service, make sure it’s front and center in your branding. Update your website and social profiles to tell your story – why you do what you do and how you’re different. Authentic storytelling builds connection with clients and justifies your pricing. Avoid getting into a race-to-the-bottom on price; instead, sell the value and experience you provide. Clients will pay for those they perceive as the best fit for their vision, especially in the era of personalized weddings.
• Leverage Digital Marketing & Social Proof: Modern couples are digitally native, so your marketing must be as well. Invest time in an SEO-friendly website with lots of real wedding photos, testimonials, and even pricing guides (transparency can win trust). Stay active on platforms that drive inquiries: for Australia, this might mean Instagram and Facebook groups, but also consider TikTok or Pinterest for showcasing your work creatively. Use short videos or Reels to give behind-the-scenes peeks – this humanizes your business and appeals to Gen Z. Encouraging reviews on Google, Facebook, and wedding directories is also key; glowing reviews and high ratings serve as social proof that converts hesitant leads. Essentially, make sure when a couple Googles you (and they will), your online presence wows them.
• Adapt Communication and Sales Tactics: The data is clear that couples prefer quick and convenient communication. Meet clients where they are: respond to inquiries rapidly (aim for same-day if not within hours), and do so in the channel they used (email, DM, text). Use templates for initial responses so you can be both fast and informative – couples often book the first responsive vendor. Offer no-obligation Zoom or FaceTime consultations; many Gen Z clients actually find virtual meetings more comfortable initially than in-person. Implement a good CRM or even just organized email tracking to follow up with leads that go quiet – gentle persistence can significantly improve conversion. Internally, track your inquiry-to-booking funnel: if you notice drop-offs at proposal stage, refine your pitch or pricing clarity. By treating follow-ups and communications as seriously as you do the event itself, you’ll stand out in service.
• Right-Size Your Pricing and Upsell Smartly: Reevaluate your pricing strategy to ensure it’s in line with current market conditions and covers your rising costs. It may be wise to introduce tiered offerings: for instance, a basic, standard, and premium tier. The basic tier can capture budget-conscious clients (so you don’t lose them entirely), while premium can cater to those willing to splurge for extra value. Be transparent about what each package includes, and consider listing starting prices publicly to pre-qualify leads. Once you have a client, look for gentle upsell opportunities that enhance their experience – e.g. a celebrant might offer a paid add-on of a personalized vow booklet or a rehearsal coordination for an extra fee; a venue might upsell a decor package or cocktail hour extension. Many couples will spend a bit more if they see clear benefit and if it doesn’t feel like a nickel-and-dime tactic. Also, factor inflation into contracts for future-dated weddings (some vendors now include clauses that prices may adjust if the wedding is 2+ years out) to protect your margins.
• Collaborate and Network within the Industry: The fragmented nature of the wedding industry can be a weakness or a strength. In 2025, collaboration is key. Build partnerships with complementary vendors – photographers with planners, celebrants with venues, etc. By creating preferred vendor networks or referral arrangements, you can feed business to each other and even create joint packages (e.g. a planner-photographer duo offering a turnkey elopement service). This not only adds value for clients (one-stop shopping) but also helps ensure you get referred rather than a random competitor. Participating in industry associations, regional wedding fairs, and online vendor communities will keep you in the loop on trends and give opportunities for cross-promotion. Remember, the real competition is not the trusted colleague down the road – it’s falling demand. By banding together, vendors can help grow the pie (encouraging more couples to hire professionals rather than DIY).
• Optimize for Efficiency and Resilience: To stay profitable in tighter times, look inward at your operations. Identify where you can cut waste or automate – are you spending hours on manual scheduling or bookkeeping? Consider affordable software or outsourcing for those tasks. Streamlining processes (templates for timelines, checklists for clients, standard contracts) saves time that can be reallocated to client service or marketing. Also, build resilience: maintain a financial buffer for unexpected disruptions, and consider business insurance that covers event postponements or cancellations. We’ve learned that the unexpected can happen (pandemics, extreme weather, etc.), so having contingency plans is part of doing business now. Diversifying your income can help too – some wedding photographers have expanded into family or newborn photography to generate year-round income; many celebrants also perform baby naming or funeral ceremonies. Such diversification can smooth out the feast-or-famine nature of wedding seasons and provide stability.
• Prioritize Client Experience and Reviews: In the wedding industry, your reputation is gold. Make 2025 the year of elevating the client experience. This means guiding couples through the planning process with empathy (many are time-poor or anxious after the past years). Little touches like welcome packets, check-in emails, or a small wedding day gift can leave a big impression. Solve problems proactively – if a couple’s budget is tight, suggest creative alternatives to meet their vision rather than simply saying “no”. By going above and beyond, you increase the likelihood of rave reviews and referrals. And since many in this generation rely on peer reviews, a delighted client who becomes a brand ambassador on social media is invaluable marketing that money can’t buy. In short, double down on being not just a vendor, but a trusted partner in the journey – it will pay dividends in word-of-mouth business.

By implementing these strategies, wedding professionals can adapt to the evolving market and safeguard their profitability. The key theme is adaptation – the industry is in flux, but those who stay agile, client-focused, and forward-thinking can absolutely continue to thrive in 2025 and beyond.

6. Outlook: What Lies Ahead for the Wedding Industry

Looking forward, will current conditions improve, stabilize, or continue to evolve? The consensus is a bit mixed, but there are strong indicators to consider:

• Gradual Rebound in Demand: The “relationship gap” effect is expected to be temporary. As dating and engagement rates recover from the pandemic slump, we should see a modest uptick in the number of weddings toward the late 2020s. Industry data from the US suggests engagements will bounce back to normal levels by 2025–2026, which implies a possible wedding bump in 2026–2027. In Australia, after the 2023 reset, 2024 may hold steady or see a small increase in weddings (industry estimates were 122k weddings in 2024). That said, no one expects a return to the extreme boom of 2022; rather, a steadying to typical pre-COVID volumes with year-to-year fluctuations. Expert forecasts lean cautiously optimistic – for example, some planners in 2023 felt 2024 was “looking like kicking it out of the park” in certain regions, whereas demographers urge waiting for 2024 data to confirm any true growth trend. Overall, anticipate a slight increase or stabilization in wedding volumes in the next couple of years, assuming no new economic or health crises intervene.
• Continued Downward Pressure on Marriage Rates: Counterbalancing the above is the long-term trend: fewer people marry as a proportion of the population than in past decades. Australia’s crude marriage rate in 2023 resumed its historical decline, and the Australian Institute of Family Studies notes this is part of a decades-long shift (people marrying later, cohabiting instead, etc.). Many Western countries mirror this; for instance, the US marriage rate in 2022 was about 6.2 per 1,000, far below rates a generation ago. This suggests that even if the absolute number of weddings stabilizes, growth will be limited and tied largely to population increases or immigration. In societies like Australia with diverse cultures, one wild card is migration – influxes of populations with higher marriage propensities (or different wedding customs) could inject demand for the industry. Barring that, the ceiling for the market may be capped unless more young people can be convinced of the value of marriage. Interestingly, surveys of Gen Z show a relatively high aspiration for marriage (nearly 86% expressing interest), so it’s possible we might see a renewal of marriage rates if those intentions translate into action. But such societal shifts happen slowly. For planning purposes, vendors should probably not bank on a dramatic expansion of the wedding market; instead, they should plan for a competitive steady state.
• Evolving Consumer Spending and Wedding Styles: Economically, most analysts predict that high inflation will moderate by 2025–2026. If cost-of-living pressures ease and wages catch up, couples might feel more comfortable spending on weddings, potentially raising average budgets again (or at least stopping the decline). However, don’t expect a reversion to ultra-lavish across-the-board; the mindset shift from COVID – toward intimacy and prudence – is likely here to stay for a large segment. The industry might bifurcate further: “budget savvy” weddings (small, DIY-heavy, minimalistic) and “experience-driven” weddings (where those with means go all out for a unique celebration), with fewer in the middle. Vendors can cater to one or both ends. One positive sign: despite economic headwinds, 95% of engaged couples in a recent survey said they’re still excited and believe their wedding will be worth the investment. This means the demand for quality experiences is intact – people still deeply value their wedding day, even if they shape it differently. So, as conditions improve, spending may increase but likely in targeted ways (splurging on the aspects that matter most to the couple and economizing on others).
• Innovation and Technology’s Role: The pandemic era forced innovation (virtual tours, online dress shopping, livestreaming, etc.), and this will continue to shape the future. Expect to see more tech-enabled efficiencies in planning – from AI-powered planning apps that help couples organize tasks, to augmented reality try-ons for attire or decor. For vendors, embracing such tools can be a competitive advantage. The trend of remote communication is certainly here to stay: couples will expect the convenience of planning via email/Zoom and digital payments/contracts as the norm. Additionally, social media will continue to dictate trends at a rapid pace (a new viral TikTok wedding idea can suddenly become what every bride asks for next season). This means the industry will evolve faster in tastes and norms, requiring professionals to stay nimble and plugged in. One can also anticipate more focus on sustainability in the future – Gen Z will increasingly demand eco-conscious options (perhaps in a few years, a carbon-neutral wedding might be a common goal).
• Resilience to External Shocks: If the last few years taught the industry anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. Whether it’s another pandemic, natural disasters, or economic recessions, the wedding sector now has playbooks for coping (e.g. flexibility in contracts, backup plans, etc.). The general outlook doesn’t foresee an imminent crisis of the scale of COVID-19, so the hope is for a period of relative stability. However, smaller disruptions (a bad flu season, a localized lockdown, travel restrictions in destination markets) might still occur. The industry is better prepared now, and couples are too – making the overall ecosystem more resilient. We’ve also seen that when deprived of weddings, people come roaring back to celebrate when they can. So weddings as a life event are here to stay, even if forms and frequencies shift.

Bottom line: The wedding industry in 2025 is at a plateau of sorts – not as flush as the post-COVID boom, but poised for subtle growth as the “engagement gap” closes and economic conditions improve. Conditions are likely to stabilize at a new normal that features smaller weddings, later marriages, and digitally-driven experiences. Any improvement will probably be incremental rather than explosive. Industry experts encourage a cautiously optimistic outlook: plan for things as they are now, but be ready to seize opportunities (like a potential uptick in late-decade weddings or an increase in destination weddings as travel fully resumes). By staying adaptable and attuned to couples’ needs, the sector can navigate whatever comes next – whether it’s a steady road or another twist in the tale.

Adapting to the New Wedding Landscape in 2025

The wedding industry has weathered a storm and emerged into a changed landscape. Below, we distill the key insights from our in-depth report into an easy-to-scan guide. Discover what’s changed since pre-COVID, what it means for wedding professionals, and how to thrive in 2025’s market.__

From Boom to Balance: How the Market Has Shifted

In 2019, weddings were a dependable business – about 113,000 couples married in Australia that year, and the average wedding cost around A$35K. Fast forward to 2022: after pandemic lockdowns lifted, we saw a wedding boom. Australia hit a record 127,000 weddings in 2022, and the U.S. had its biggest wedding year since the ’80s. Businesses were flat out, juggling postponed events with new bookings. But by 2023, things cooled off. The number of Aussie weddings fell back to **118,000 (close to pre-COVID norms) **, and surveys showed many vendors facing a slowdown in enquiries. In fact, some wedding photographers and planners reported 40–50% fewer bookings for 2024 compared to the old days. The initial rush of pent-up demand is behind us, and we’ve entered a period of balance.

What about spending? Interestingly, couples are a bit more thrifty now. Pre-pandemic, a $35K budget was typical; today the average Australian wedding spends ~$34K. That’s essentially flat, despite a couple years of inflation. Globally the trend is similar – costs per wedding are up (vendors raised prices), but many couples countered by trimming guest lists or expectations. We’re seeing more “micro-weddings” (think 20–50 people, backyard or boutique venues) and fewer 300-guest extravaganzas. One Aussie study found 60% of couples now prefer intimate ceremonies and are redefining what “luxury” means on their terms. The message: couples still value their big day, but they’re increasingly cost-conscious and selective. They want impact, not necessarily size.

What’s Driving These Changes?

Several big-picture shifts are at play:

• Generational Change: The couples getting married now are Millennials (late 20s to late 30s) and the first wave of Gen Z (mid 20s). They have a different mindset than older generations. Many Gen Z think weddings shouldn’t cost a fortune – in one U.S. poll, a quarter of Gen Z respondents said $10–20K is a reasonable budget, while many older Millennials felt $50K+ was okay! Gen Z couples are generally opting for more personal, low-key celebrations, often infused with tech and social media. They’re also marrying a bit later. The average Aussie bride/groom is now 31, up from 28–29 pre-COVID, due partly to pandemic delays.
• Cultural & Lifestyle Trends: The pandemic accelerated non-traditional wedding trends. Elopements, weekday weddings, sequel weddings (tiny ceremony now, big party later) – these are now common. There’s also a big push for sustainable weddings: about 1 in 4 couples is prioritizing eco-friendly choices (recyclable decor, local catering, even second-hand dresses). Society is also more accepting of not following old wedding “rules,” so couples feel free to do what suits them. That might mean mismatched bridal parties, a food-truck reception, or skipping some formalities altogether. In short, wedding culture is more individualistic in 2025.
• Economic Pressures: Inflation and high living costs have put a squeeze on budgets. Many couples are balancing wedding expenses with saving for a house or other goals. About 65% of Aussie couples say cost-of-living affected their wedding plans. We see this in choices like smaller guest counts (the easiest way to cut costs) or opting for DIY elements. Interestingly though, not everyone is cutting back – some are actually spending more to get their dream day despite higher prices. It’s a polarisation: those who have the means will splurge, those who don’t are finding creative ways to celebrate nicely for less.
• COVID’s Overhang – The “Relationship Gap”: Here’s a fascinating one – the idea that COVID created a gap in new relationships, leading to fewer weddings now. During 2020–21, lots of single people simply didn’t meet their future partner (no parties, no events, lockdowns!). Fast forward a few years: that means fewer people are at the stage of getting engaged and married. The world’s biggest jeweler noted a drop in engagement ring sales in 2023 due to this “dating dry spell”. They expect engagements (and thus weddings) to rebound in the next 2–3 years as those delayed love stories catch up. But for now, it’s a real factor behind softer demand.

How Wedding Pros Should Adapt in 2025

For celebrants, planners, photographers and more, the current climate means adjust and thrive is the mantra. Here are the key adaptations successful pros are making:

• Up Your Digital Game: Today’s couples are glued to their phones. They find vendors via Google, Instagram, TikTok, and wedding websites. Make sure you’re visible online. This means a strong Instagram portfolio, short videos or Reels showcasing your work, and quick responses to DMs and inquiry emails. Also, modern clients hate phone calls – about 82% prefer to communicate by email – so be ready to chat in the medium they like (email, text, Zoom). The faster and more helpfully you respond, the more likely you’ll get the booking (a significant chunk book whoever replies first).
• Diversify Services (Think Small & Unique): Since micro-weddings and elopements are on the rise, consider offering packages tailored to those. For example, a planner might have a “mini wedding” package for 20 guests, or a photographer might advertise elopement specials that cover just 2 hours. Be open to weekday weddings and shorter lead times – flexibility can fill your calendar. Also, highlight any unique services: do you offer drone footage? Are you also a florist+planner in one? Couples love one-stop solutions, especially to simplify smaller events.
• Show Your Value Proposition: In a crowded market, ask yourself: What makes me stand out? Maybe you have 10+ years of experience, or you’re an expert in multicultural weddings, or you offer a super personalized service. Don’t be shy – broadcast your unique value in your marketing. This helps avoid competing purely on price. Clients are willing to invest if they feel you get them or will deliver something special. Testimonials and reviews are gold here – encourage your happy couples to leave reviews, and feature those rave quotes on your site to build trust.
• Adjust Pricing Strategies: Pricing is tricky now. You need to cover your costs (which have likely gone up) but also stay attractive to cost-conscious clients. Many vendors have introduced tiered packages. For instance, a photographer might offer “basic,” “standard,” and “premium” tiers. This way a couple with a tighter budget can opt for basic (maybe fewer hours or no album) while those who want it all can choose premium. It’s about being adaptable – perhaps offer an installment payment plan or be transparent with starting prices so couples with limited budgets aren’t scared to approach you. And if you haven’t revisited your pricing since pre-COVID, do it – factor in any increased expenses on your end.
• Collaborate and Network: One way to sustain business is through referrals and partnerships. If you’re a celebrant, get to know local planners and photographers (and vice versa). Referring clients to each other can keep everyone busy. You could even create joint offerings – e.g. a venue + decorator package at a special rate. Industry networking (whether via local meetups or online groups) can also keep you informed and sane. Sharing intel (“Is anyone else seeing slow bookings this month?”) helps validate that it’s not just you and can spark ideas to turn things around. Community over competition!
• Streamline Your Operations: During the boom it was okay if your processes were a bit inefficient – business was plentiful. Now, tighten up. Use tools to automate repetitive tasks like scheduling, invoices, social media posting. The less time you spend on admin, the more time you have for clients and marketing. Also, have backup plans ready. After the chaos of 2020, being prepared for the unexpected is a selling point. Couples will appreciate knowing you have a Plan B for an outdoor wedding if it rains, or that you can accommodate rescheduling if something crazy happens.

Key Stats & Signals to Share

• Weddings by the numbers: Australia saw 127k weddings in 2022 (record high), then a drop to 118k in 2023. The U.S. similarly spiked to ₂.6 million weddings in 2022 (highest in 40 years) and then leveled off. The backlog is done – we’re in a steady state now.
• Spending trends: Average spending is down ₃–5% from pre-COVID when adjusted for inflation. Many couples are inviting fewer guests – e.g. average guest count in the U.S. dropped from 131 in 2019 to around 117 in 2022 (indicative of the global shift to intimate weddings). However, certain costs are rising: venue fees, catering per-head, and other vendor rates have gone up due to inflation (venues up ₆% in Aus last year).
• Gen Z vs Millennials: 73% of Gen Z & Millennials say weddings are too expensive and many are finding ways to cut costs. Gen Z is also more likely to ditch traditions (for example, only 64% of Gen Z couples used a seating chart vs 78% of Millennials in one survey – a fun stat showing how norms are changing).
• The engagement gap: In the U.S., engagements fell from ₂.8M to 2.1M per year in the wake of COVID. This is expected to rebound by 2024–25, which is a hopeful sign for more weddings in the pipeline. Keep an eye on dating trends – they surprisingly foreshadow wedding booms or busts!
• Client behavior: 82% of couples prefer email to communicate with vendors, and only 1 in 10 want to talk via social media or text. Quick response matters: 19% book the first responder. Also, 71% of couples still have one partner doing most of the planning (usually the bride), but interestingly joint planning is on the rise (up 6%), meaning vendors should involve both partners when appropriate.

The Road Ahead: Cautious Optimism

The general feeling in the industry is cautiously optimistic. We’re not expecting another huge boom imminently, but we also don’t foresee a crash. It’s more about adapting to a new normal:

• Weddings aren’t going away: People still want to get married and celebrate love – that’s a constant. If anything, the pandemic reminded folks why we have weddings (to bring family and friends together!). So the emotional drive for weddings is as strong as ever.
• Temporary dip, then stabilize: The current dip due to the pandemic relationship gap should be temporary. Many in the industry expect things to stabilize or improve slightly by 2025–2026. A leading jeweler projects engagements in 2024 will tick back up to ₂.4M in the U.S., which bodes well. In Australia, 2024 might see a small increase in weddings simply due to some spillover of postponed ones and a growing population.
• Adaptation is key: The kinds of weddings and how they’re planned will keep evolving. Virtual components, hybrid events (some guests in-person, some on Zoom), and eco-conscious choices are likely to become even more standard. Gen Z will continue to put their stamp on wedding traditions – expect the unexpected with themes, attire (who knows, maybe wedding crocs footwear will be a trend!), and uses of technology (AI-generated photo albums?). As a pro, staying flexible and creative is your best strategy.
• Stay informed: We recommend keeping an eye on official stats (like annual marriage reports) and industry surveys each year to spot trends early. The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases detailed marriage data with a lag (2023 data came out in Feb 2025), which can confirm whether the marriage rate is truly trending up or down. Industry bodies like Easy Weddings or The Knot also publish yearly trend reports that are packed with useful insights on budgets, preferences, etc. Knowledge is power – use it to adjust your business strategy continuously.

In conclusion, the wedding industry of 2025 is leaner and more dynamic than its pre-pandemic self. Australian wedding professionals have proven resilient, and with the right strategies, they can not only survive but thrive in this new era. By focusing on what today’s couples value – authenticity, flexibility, and value for money – and by running smart, modern businesses, celebrants, planners, and all vendors can look forward to a sustainable and even inspiring future. After all, love isn’t cancelled, and there will always be a demand to celebrate it – it’s our job to make those celebrations memorable no matter the circumstances.

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Originally published on the Celebrant Institute: https://celebrant.institute/business/when-will-the-tide-turn/.